🔴 Strait of Hormuz Disruption
69% of India's LNG (17.5 MMT) transits the Strait. Any closure could immediately disrupt supply to Dahej, Mundra, Kochi and Chhara terminals — representing ~80% of India's regasification capacity.
🔴 Qatar Concentration Risk
Qatar supplies ~50% of India's total LNG via long-term RasGas contracts. Force majeure notices have already been issued by PLNG to GAIL, IOCL and BPCL citing disruptions at Ras Laffan in 2026.
🟠 Price Volatility — JKM Spike
Geopolitical premium in JKM spot LNG prices can spike 10–15% overnight. With ~30% of India's LNG on spot contracts, price risk is material for industrial users and CGD companies.
🟠 Terminal Utilization Risk
PLNG (Petronet) has 77% Hormuz exposure directly affecting regasification revenue. GUJS (Gujarat State Petronet) faces risk with 62% of CY25 volumes sourced via the Strait corridor.
🟢 Diversification — US LNG
GAIL's US LNG swap volumes provide a natural hedge. Hazira and Dabhol terminals (<25% ME exposure) offer alternative supply routes from US, Russian and Australian sources.
🟢 Government Mitigation Plan
GoI is exploring emergency supply from Norway and expanded US LNG contracts. IEA projects India's imports to double by 2030 to 64 bcm/yr — necessitating supply route diversification.